What to expect from the RBA meeting in November 2025
While several economists were previously anticipating one more rate cut this year, rising inflation points towards the cash rate being left on hold.
30 Oct 2025
While several economists were previously anticipating one more rate cut this year, rising inflation points towards the cash rate being left on hold.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hold its next meeting on 4 November 2025, to decide whether to adjust the national cash rate, which currently sits at 3.60%. While several economists were previously anticipating one more rate cut this year, rising inflation all but certainly points towards the cash rate being left on hold.
The most recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that inflation rose 1.3% in the September 2025 quarter and 3.2% annually. Additionally, trimmed mean annual inflation was 3.0% to the September quarter, up from 2.7% to the June quarter—the first increase since December 2022.
Speaking at the ABE Annual Dinner prior to the release of the latest CPI statistics, RBA governor Michele Bullock said that a quarterly increase of 0.9% in trimmed mean inflation would be a “material miss” for the RBA’s forecasts. Considering that the ABS numbers came back with a trimmed mean of 1.0%—40 basis points above the RBA’s forecast of 0.6%—the data-dependent RBA may choose to reassess its position at the upcoming monetary policy board meeting.
Economists from Australia’s big four banks are in agreement that the RBA will keep interest rates on hold on Tuesday 4 November 2025. Some updated their forecasts immediately after the RBA’s previous monetary policy meeting, while others held out hope for a November cut right up until the CPI data release.
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| Current big four bank cash rate forecasts | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Bank | Next cut | Total cuts to come in cycle | Cash rate at end of cuts |
| CBA | – | 0 | 3.60% |
| Westpac | Under review | – | – |
| NAB | 5 May | 1 | 3.35% |
| ANZ | 3 Feb | 1 | 3.35% |
ANZ – Hold until February 2025
ANZ revised its cash rate forecast at the start of October 2025, ruling out a November 2025 cut in favour of relief being pushed back to February 2026. The recent CPI figures have solidified the bank’s outlook, with a unanimous decision to hold now expected from the RBA.
“If the activity backdrop proves materially weaker than anticipated, the RBA board does have the option of easing in December. That meeting will come after the release of another labour force print and the September quarter national accounts. However, in the wake of today’s CPI outturn the hurdle for any easing this year is now very high.”
According to ANZ, the most likely time for a rate cut will be February 2026, which would mark the final cut of this easing cycle. However, there remains a risk that this cut could be pushed back to May 2026, or not occur at all.
It’s also worth noting that ANZ has recently adjusted its savings account interest rates out of cycle from the RBA.
Commonwealth Bank – Hold for the foreseeable future
Commonwealth Bank also updated its cash rate forecast following the September 2025 RBA meeting, pushing back the next predicted rate cut from November 2025 back to February 2026. But following the recent CPI data release, the bank has pulled back further, and now expects the RBA to keep the cash ate on hold for a “prolonged period.”
“Higher inflation and the cyclical upswing in demand now underway, driven largely by consumption and housing, will see the RBA conclude that the economy needs the cash rate to remain in slightly restrictive territory.”
Looking ahead, Commonwealth Bank expects that inflation will gradually subside towards the mid-point of the target band (2% to 3%) in late 2026. But if inflation remains elevated next year, “the RBA may need to act.”
NAB – Hold until May 2026
Following the previous RBA monetary policy meeting, NAB not only updated its cash rate forecast, but pushed back potential rate relief until May 2026. These forecasts were based on higher than expected monthly CPI data at the time.
“We suspect it will take at least two, if not three, quarterly inflation prints to resolve the extent of signal in the Q3 inflation data. Elevated uncertainty about the underlying pulse of inflation, against a backdrop of modestly better activity data, argues for a long pause in the rate cycle in which the stance of policy remains modestly restrictive.”
The recent inflation data did not change NAB’s expectations that “a period of
modestly restrictive policy will be both necessary and sufficient to eventually force the trajectory of core inflation onto a path consistent with the RBA’s target mandate.”
Westpac – Hold, with the future uncertain
Up until recently, Westpac had been holding out hope for a rate cut in November 2025. But following the release of data showing inflation is “too hot to handle”, the bank is now expecting the RBA to keep the cash rate on hold for the rest of 2025.
While Westpac was previously also forecasting a February 2026 rate cut, this outcome is “far from certain” on account of the surprising size of the quarterly inflation figure. The bank is now conducting a full reassessment of its cash rate outlook.
“However, with the starting point for the unemployment rate now also higher, and a higher assumed track for the cash rate in the forecasts, there are downward pressures on inflation further out. The RBA is focussed on inflation risks now, but could be surprised in 2026 by the gradual labour market softening.”
This article was reviewed by our Finance Editor Jessica Pridmore before it was updated, as part of our fact-checking process.
