When will interest rates go down in 2026?
The RBA cut the cash rate three times in 2025, but now the question is if any cuts will materialise in 2026.
09 Dec 2025
The RBA cut the cash rate three times in 2025, but now the question is if any cuts will materialise in 2026.
At its February 2025 board meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board cut the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.10%. This was the first change in 15 months, and was followed by another 25 basis point cut in May and a further one in August, bringing the cash rate to its current level of 3.60%.
While these cuts gave a measure of much-needed relief to variable rate home loan borrowers, the rate cut party appears to be over. With inflation edging up once again, the RBA held at its last meeting of 2025, and the question now becomes if, not when we’ll see any further relief in the new year.
When do the big four banks think rates will go down?
Economists at Australia’s major banks are almost all in agreement that we will not see any further cuts in the new year, with Westpac being the one current holdout still calling for cuts in the new year.
The RBA’s board will announce its first cash rate call for 2026 on Tuesday February 3, but in the meantime, here’s what the big four banks are forecasting.
ANZ: No further cuts in the current cycle
ANZ predicts no further cuts at this stage.
Commonwealth Bank: No further cuts in the current cycle
Commonwealth Bank predicts no further cuts at this stage.
NAB: No further cuts in the current cycle
Commonwealth Bank predicts no further cuts at this stage.
Westpac: Two cuts by late 2026
Westpac predicts a 25 basis point cut in May and another in August of 2026, taking the cash rate to 3.10% by the late 2026.
When does the RBA board meet next?
The board of the RBA has changed its meeting schedule in 2024. Where it used to meet on the first Tuesday of each month, excluding January, it now meets eight times a year, for two days at a time. The rationale behind this altered schedule is to give the board more time to consider its decisions. The meeting dates for the RBA board in 2026 are as follows:
- 2–3 February
- 16-17 March
- 4–5 May
- 15–16 June
- 10–11 August
- 28–29 September
- 2–3 November
- 7–8 December
The RBA’s next cash rate announcement is due on Tuesday February 3.
This article was reviewed by our Editor-in-Chief Nina Rinella before it was updated, as part of our fact-checking process.
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