ANZ now expects the RBA will hike the cash rate next Tuesday, bringing it in line with the other three big bank forecasts. It also expects the RBA will hike again at the following meeting in November.
If this happened, it would take the cash rate to the highest setting the country has seen since 2008.
Westpac, NAB and CBA, which updated its forecast earlier this morning, all say there’s a risk of another hike in November, but are yet to put it officially in their cash rate forecasts.
Big banks’ cash rate forecasts for 2026 | ||
|---|---|---|
Forecast | Cash rate at end of 2026 | |
CBA | +0.25 Sept | 4.60% |
Westpac | +0.25 Sept | 4.60% |
NAB | +0.25 Sept | 4.60% |
ANZ | +0.25 Sept, + 0.25 Nov | 4.85% |
Source: Prepared by Canstar.
Impact of a cash rate hike
A 0.25 hike in September would add $91 to the monthly repayments for a borrower with a $600,000 loan at the start of the hikes in 2026 and 25 years remaining.
If there is another 0.25 hike in November, repayments would increase by $92, and across what would be five rate hikes, that borrower would be paying an extra $456 per month on their mortgage.
Impact of 0.25 cash rate hikes on monthly repayments | |||
|---|---|---|---|
Loan size at start of hikes | Hike in Sep | Hike in Nov | Cumulative increase across 5 hikes |
$600,000 | +$91 | +$92 | $456 |
$750,000 | +$114 | +$115 | $570 |
$1 million | +$152 | +$153 | $759 |
Source: Canstar. Based on an owner-occupier paying principal & interest with 25 years remaining in Feb 2026 at the RBA avg variable rate. Assumes rate hikes in Sep and Nov and banks pass it on the month after. Changes are to minimum repayments.
Borrowers have a week to get themselves on a lower rate
Canstar’s data insights director, Sally Tindall, says, “ANZ has sounded the alarm. It now expects the RBA to hike not just once, but twice before the end of the year, jacking up the cash rate to the highest setting since the GFC back in 2008.”
“While ANZ is the only major bank to officially put a second hike in its forecast, borrowers with a mortgage should not rule out this possibility.
“The Board has consistently stated it will do whatever it takes to tame inflation. Given the resilience of borrowers to date, this could mean two hikes, not one.
“If the RBA delivers back-to-back hikes in September and November, a borrower with a $600,000 mortgage and 25 years remaining will see their minimum monthly repayments jump by around $183, but that’s just the potential increase from hereon in.
“Tallying this up across what would then be five hikes for the year, they’re looking at a total increase of close to half a thousand dollars compared to the start of 2026. That’s like buying four new car tyres, not just once, but month after month.
“Borrowers could well have just eight more days to get themselves on a lower rate before the RBA makes its next cash rate call.
“At a minimum, call your bank and haggle, but also do the maths on refinancing, because often customers have to pick up their mortgage and take it to a different lender to get themselves on one of the sharpest rates.”
