Interest rate forecast and predictions for 2026
The nation’s big four banks are split on whether we will see further cash rate rises in 2026.
03 Feb 2026
The nation’s big four banks are split on whether we will see further cash rate rises in 2026.
What is happening with the cash rate?
After several years of steep hikes, and a year without movement in 2024, the central bank finally began lowering rates at the beginning of 2025, and cut the cash rate a total of three times throughout the year.
With inflation once again on the rise, though, the RBA hiked the cash rate at its February 2026 meeting, and the question now becomes whether we’ll see further rises in 2026.
Will Australians see rate cuts in 2026?
With rate cuts unlikely in the near future, the question now becomes when and by how much rates might rise again.
The latest CPI figures saw headline inflation rise to an annual rate of 3.8%, and when this news dropped, Canstar’s data insights director Sally Tindall said that the RBA would have little choice but to make a U-turn back to rate hikes.
“We’re now four long years into the battle with inflation and today’s results confirm we’re once again headed in the wrong direction. The RBA no longer has the luxury of continuing its ‘wait-and-see’ strategy if it’s serious about getting the inflation job done.”
What are the big four banks’ cash rate predictions?
Here’s what the major banks currently have to say about the RBA’s predicted movements into 2026:
- ANZ currently predicts rates will remain steady through 2026.
- CBA currently predicts rates will remain steady through 2026.
- NAB currently predicts a rise of 25 basis points in May.
- Westpac currently predicts rates will remain steady through 2026.
Where the RBA board formerly met on the first Tuesday of each month, excluding January, it now meets eight times a year, for two days at a time. This means that the RBA’s next cash rate announcement is due on Tuesday March 17 at 2.30pm.
Will interest rates rise again in 2026?
One of the RBA’s key mandates is to keep inflation in line in the economy, and with inflation now sitting above the central bank’s preferred range, another cash rate rise is not out of the question.
In late January, CommBank’s head of Australian economics Belinda Allen speculated that current global geopolitical uncertainty could be enough to give the central bank pause before hiking rates again.
This did not play out in February, but it remains to be seen whether the RBA will hike again in the months to come.
How can I compare home loans?
Canstar research found that, for an owner-occupier with a $600,000 debt and 25 years remaining, a 0.25 percentage point hike to interest rates in February could increase the average minimum monthly repayment by $90.
If you’re looking for a low fixed or variable rate for a new home loan or a refinance, you can compare home loans with Canstar to see if you can find a lender offering a deal that meets your needs and circumstances.
If you’re considering refinancing from a variable rate to a fixed one, it may also be worth considering the pros and cons of fixing your home loan, and considering the current interest rates on home loans to see how fixed and variable rate loans stack up. You might also want to consider some of the home loan refinancing deals that might be available.
This article was reviewed by our Editor-in-Chief Nina Rinella before it was updated, as part of our fact-checking process.
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