When will interest rates go down in 2026?

The RBA cut the cash rate three times in 2025, but now the question is whether the cuts will continue into 2026.

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The RBA cut the cash rate three times in 2025, but now the question is whether the cuts will continue into 2026.

At its February 2025 board meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board cut the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.10%. This was the first change in 15 months, and was followed by another 25 basis point cut in May and a further one in August, bringing the cash rate to its current level of 3.60%.

While these cuts gave a measure of much-needed relief to variable rate home loan borrowers, the rate cut party appears to be over, at least for now. Recent figures show that, with inflation edging up once again, a further cut is essentially out of the question for 2025, and the question now becomes if, not when we’ll see any further relief in the new year.

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When do the big four banks think rates will go down?

Economists at Australia’s major banks are currently split on whether we’ll see any further cuts in the new year.

The RBA’s board will announce its final cash rate call for 2025 on Tuesday December 9, 2025, but in the meantime, here’s what the big four banks are forecasting.

ANZ: One cut in 2026

ANZ predicts a 25 basis point cut in February, taking the cash rate to 3.35% by the start of 2026.

Commonwealth Bank: No further cuts in the current cycle

Commonwealth Bank predicts no further cuts at this stage.

NAB: No further cuts in the current cycle

Commonwealth Bank predicts no further cuts at this stage.

Westpac: Two cuts by late 2026

Westpac predicts a 25 basis point cut in May and another in August of 2026, taking the cash rate to 3.10% by the late 2026.

When does the RBA board meet next?

The board of the RBA has changed its meeting schedule in 2024. Where it used to meet on the first Tuesday of each month, excluding January, it now meets eight times a year, for two days at a time. The rationale behind this altered schedule is to give the board more time to consider its decisions. The meeting dates for the RBA board in 2025 are as follows:

17–18 February
31 March–1 April
19–20 May
7–8 July
11–12 August
29–30 September
3–4 November
8–9 December

The RBA’s next cash rate announcement is due on Tuesday December 9.

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This article was reviewed by our Editor-in-Chief Nina Rinella before it was updated, as part of our fact-checking process.

Alasdair Duncan

Deputy Finance Editor

Alasdair Duncan is Canstar's Deputy Finance Editor, specialising in home loans, property and lifestyle topics. He has written more than 500 articles for Canstar and his work is widely referenced by other publishers and media outlets, including Yahoo Finance, The New Daily, The Motley Fool and Sky News. He has featured as a guest author for property website homely.com.au.

In his more than 15 years working in the media, Alasdair has written for a broad range of publications. Before joining Canstar, he was a News Editor at Pedestrian.TV, part of Australia’s leading youth media group. His work has also appeared on ABC News, Junkee, Rolling Stone, Kotaku, the Sydney Star Observer and The Brag. He has a Bachelor of Laws (Honours) and a Bachelor of Arts with a major in Journalism from the University of Queensland.

When he is not writing about finance for Canstar, Alasdair can probably be found at the beach with his two dogs or listening to podcasts about pop music. You can follow Alasdair on LinkedIn.