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CBA quashes chance of another cut in 2025, but mortgages still surging ahead
02 Oct 2025
CBA has revised its cash rate forecast, pushing back the timing of the next and, what it expects to be, final cut in the cycle to February next year. Before yesterday, the bank’s economic team was expecting there would be a November rate cut.
The move follows on from NAB’s change to its cash rate forecast last Thursday. NAB now also expects there will be just one more cash rate cut in the cycle, but that it won’t come until May 2026.
Westpac and ANZ currently still forecast the RBA will cut the cash rate in November, however, Westpac said a November cut was “far from assured”, while ANZ said there was a real risk of no rate cut in November, which had increased on the back of yesterday’s comments from the RBA board.
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| Current big four bank cash rate forecasts | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Bank | Next cut | Total cuts to come in cycle | Cash rate at end of cuts |
| CBA | 3 Feb | 1 | 3.35% |
| Westpac | 4 Nov | 3 | 2.85% |
| NAB | 5 May | 1 | 3.35% |
| ANZ | 4 Nov | 1 | 3.35% |
Banks continue to grow their residential mortgage books
While the outlook on further rate cuts is clouded, the mortgage market itself is still running hot.
The total value of housing loans among all ADIs has continued to climb, increasing by $11.6 billion (0.5%) between July and August and $131.9 billion (5.9%) in the last year, according to yesterday’s APRA Monthly Authorised Deposit-taking Institution Statistics for August.
CBA once again recorded the biggest monthly rise among the big four banks in both dollar and percentage terms, increasing by over $3 billion in the space of a month, or 0.5%. Over the past year, Australia’s biggest bank grew its residential mortgage book by almost $35 billion (6.2%).
Macquarie Bank also continued its impressive climb, increasing its value of residential mortgages by $2.8 billion or 1.9% between July and August. Over the last year, it has increased its mortgage book by almost $27 billion or 21.6%.
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| Loans to households: housing | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amount | Market share | Monthly change | Year-on-year change | |
| CBA | $599.0 billion | 25.3% | +0.5% | +6.2% |
| Westpac | $490.0 billion | 20.7% | +0.3% | +2.8% |
| NAB | $337.1 billion | 14.3% | +0.4% | +5.3% |
| ANZ | $319.2 billion | 13.5% | +0.3% | +5.3% |
| Macquarie | $150.5 billion | 6.4% | +1.9% | +21.6% |
| All ADI loans | $2.36 trillion | 100.0% | +0.5% | +5.9% |
Source: APRA Monthly Authorised Deposit-taking Institution Statistics, August 2025, released 30 September 2025. Includes both owner occupied and investor loans to households for the big four banks and Macquarie. ANZ figures do not include the former Suncorp mortgages.
Money in the bank hits another record high
Australians squirrelled away an extra $9.8 billion in the month of August, despite ongoing cost-of-living pressures.
The latest APRA data shows the total amount saved in the bank from households is now $1.65 trillion—another record high.
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| APRA total deposits by households | ||
|---|---|---|
| Amount | Monthly change | Year-on-year change |
| $1.65 trillion | +$9.8 billion
+0.6% |
+$139.9 billion
+9.3% |
Source: APRA Monthly Authorised Deposit-taking Institution Statistics, August 2025 released 30 September 2025, prepared by Canstar.com.au. Note: deposits from households include term deposits, transaction accounts, mortgage offset accounts and savings accounts on the books of ADIs.
Canstar’s data insights director, Sally Tindall says, “It’s no surprise CBA has run the ruler through the chance of another rate cut this year.
“While borrowers are hoping for more relief, the battle with inflation has not been a straightforward one, which means the cash rate could stay on hold for the rest of this year. Governor Bullock has said the cash rate is likely to still be slightly restrictive, so a rate cut isn’t off the table entirely, however, there’s a chance we could be on an extended pause well into the new year, if not longer.
“Even without further rate cuts locked in, the home loan market is powering ahead, with data out from APRA showing the residential mortgage market grew by $11.6 billion between July and August among the banks. More than $3 billion of this was from CBA alone, with Macquarie hot on its heels, posting a monthly increase of $2.8 billion.
“Household deposits hit yet another record high in August, with Australians stashing away close to $10 billion in just one month. It’s remarkable resilience given the cost-of-living crunch, and shows many households are still determined to keep building their buffers where they can.
“Savers will be breathing a sigh of relief at the prospect of the RBA slowing down on rate cuts. With money in the bank continuing to climb, many savers will be glad to see competitive rates hang around for longer.”
This article was reviewed by our Finance Editor Jessica Pridmore before it was updated, as part of our fact-checking process.
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