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ANZ rules out another cut in 2025: What borrowers can do to get ahead
03 Oct 2025
ANZ has revised its cash rate forecast, pushing back the timing of the next and, what it expects to be, the final cut in the cycle to February next year.
This means in the past eight days, three of the big banks’ economic teams have changed their forecasts, shifting the timing of the next cash rate cut from November, out to 2026, with ANZ and CBA expecting it to come in February, while NAB expects it in May. All three banks expect just one more cut in the cycle.
Westpac is now the outlier, still forecasting three further cash rate cuts in November, February and May. However, its economics team said a November cut was “far from assured”.
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| Current big four bank cash rate forecasts | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Bank | Next cut | Total cuts to come in cycle | Cash rate at end of cuts |
| CBA | 3 Feb | 1 | 3.35% |
| Westpac | 4 Nov | 3 | 2.85% |
| NAB | 5 May | 1 | 3.35% |
| ANZ | 3 Feb | 1 | 3.35% |
It’s now up to borrowers to get themselves a good rate
With the cash rate likely to remain on hold for the remainder of 2025, borrowers seeking rate relief or wanting to get ahead on their debt reduction should be on the lookout for a competitive rate.
Our database lists the lowest variable rate for owner-occupiers at 4.99%, which is reserved for first home buyers, however, those refinancing may be eligible for rates as low as 5.08%.
Investor variable rates on our database start from 5.24% for principal and interest repayments or 5.39% for interest-only.
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| Advertised variable rates on Canstar | ||
|---|---|---|
| Lowest rate from | Competitive rate | |
| Owner-occupier, principal and interest | 4.99% | under 5.25%
(over 30 lenders) |
| Investor, principal & interest | 5.24% | under 5.45%
(over 20 lenders) |
| Investor, interest-only | 5.39% | under 5.70%
(over 30 lenders) |
Source: Canstar.
What other tools are available to borrowers looking to get ahead?
Even though a cash rate cut may be off the cards in the immediate future, banks are still throwing in a range of sweeteners to existing borrowers looking to switch, including cashback, frequent flyer points and fee waivers.
Frequent flyer home loans
Research shows there are currently four lenders offering Qantas frequent flyer points with a home loan – CBA, Qantas Money, Qudos Bank and La Trobe Financial.
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| Home loans with frequent flyer point offers | ||
|---|---|---|
| Lender | Lowest variable | Current offer |
| CBA Digi Home Loan | 5.34% (5.47% comparison rate*) | Up to 300,000 points at sign-up, depending on loan size. |
| Qantas Money Home Loan | 5.43% (5.49% comparison rate*) | 100,000 Qantas pts per year. Min loan size $300k (plus 75k pts extra in yr 1 for refinancers with loans of $500k+). |
| Qudos Qantas Points Home Loan | 5.74% (5.74% comparison rate*) | 150 Qantas points per year for every $1k of loan balance. |
| La Trobe Financial | 5.94% (6.20% comparison rate*) | 50,000 Qantas points on settlement + 15,000 per year for 5 years |
Source: Canstar. Notes: La Trobe Financial’s lowest advertised variable rate is for emergency service workers only. Lowest rates are for owner-occupiers paying principal and interest. LVR and other requirements apply.
Cashback sweeteners
Home loan cashback deals peaked in 2023, when over 30 lenders offered a cashback deal as banks fought tooth and nail to steal refinancers from their competitors.
CBA was the first of the big banks to turn its back on these cash incentives, pulling them from the market on 31 May 2023 with dozens of other lenders, stopping the refinancing boom in its tracks.
After holding out for another two years, ANZ removed its cashback offering on Wednesday for refinancers, however, it has kept its cashback for first home buyers.
However, cashback deals are not dead and buried. Analysis shows 10 lenders currently offer a cash incentive on mortgages for refinancers.
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| Home loans with cashback offers | ||
|---|---|---|
| Lender | Variable rate from: | Cashback |
| BOQ | 5.38% | $2k for refinance and first home buyers for loans of $400k+ |
| Greater Bank | 5.19% | $2k for refinanced loans $250k – $499k, $2.5k for loans $500k+, $3k for online applications $500k+ |
| IMB | 5.29% | $2k for loans $250k – $499k, $3k for loans $500k – $749k, $4k for $750k+ |
| ME | 5.38% | $3k for refinanced loans of $700k+ |
| Newcastle Permanent | 5.24% | $2k for new and refinanced loans of $250k – $499k, $3k for loans of $500k+ |
| Police Bank | 5.34% | $2k for loans of $300k – $499k, $3k for loans $500k – $749k, $4k loans $750k+ |
| Queensland Country Bank | 5.19% | $4k for new and refinanced loans of $300k+ |
| RACQ Bank | 5.14% | $2k for loans $500k+ Excludes refinancing |
| Reduce Home Loans | 5.24% | $2k for loans $250k-$499k, $3k for $500k+ |
| Summerland Bank | 5.24% | $2k for loans $250k – $499k, $3k for $500k+ |
Source: Canstar.com.au. Notes: Lowest rates are for owner-occupiers paying principal and interest. LVR and other requirements apply.
Canstar’s data insights director, Sally Tindall says, “ANZ is the third major bank to slam the door shut on expectations of a 2025 rate cut.”
“While forecasts can be wrong, the latest two rounds of monthly inflation data has cast a long shadow over the chance of a rate cut this year.
“Households waiting for the RBA to swoop in with a cut could be waiting a while. If you want to get ahead on your mortgage, take matters into your own hands by shopping around for a sharper rate.
“Owner-occupiers paying down their debt might be able to pick up a deal under 5.25 per cent, while investors can aim for under 5.5 per cent, particularly if they’re willing to pay both principal and interest. If you’re paying significantly more, it’s time to take action.
“Cashback deals might not be as abundant as they were a couple of years ago, but they’re not dead in the water. Right now 10 lenders on the Canstar database are still offering cash incentives of up to $4,000. For some borrowers, these sweeteners can help cover refinancing costs and put a dent in the household bills.
“Points offers are another way lenders are trying to stand out, with Australia’s biggest bank joining the party last month with up to 300,000 Qantas Points on offer but only for those who apply online.
“However, with any upfront sweetener, borrowers should remember, free flights and cold hard cash might sound appealing, but the real savings typically come from securing a low interest rate, particularly on larger loans and especially if you’re unlikely to refinance regularly.”
This article was reviewed by our Finance Editor Jessica Pridmore before it was updated, as part of our fact-checking process.
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