The RBA holds rates steady, meaning ‘no cuts, no glory’ til at least November

The board of the RBA has acted in line with the predictions of the nation’s major banks, holding the cash rate steady at 3.60% at its September meeting.

The bank’s board has already delivered three rate cuts in 2025, offering some measure of relief to variable rate home loan borrowers. The question now is whether we’ll see a fourth before the end of the year.

Will we see further rate cuts in 2025?

While the latest CPI data showed that inflation lifted slightly in July, it still remains within the RBA’s target band of 2-3%. Despite this, the board will want to be satisfied that inflation is stable before making any further cuts.

Governor Michelle Bullock addressed this in a statement to a parliamentary committee in Canberra last week, saying that, while progress has been made in bringing inflation down, it’s important that it now stays within the target range.

Prior to last week, economists at the big four banks had all predicted one more cash rate cut in November, but following the recent CPI data, National Australia Bank broke ranks with the others, predicting that the board won’t move again until next year.

In a statement highlighting the RBA’s wait-and-see approach to inflation, NAB economists said that they said they don’t foresee a cut happening until May 2026. At the time of writing, ANZ, CBA and Westpac are all still calling a November cut.

How can you save on your home loan?

Canstar’s data insight director Sally Tindall says that if a cut on November materialises, it would shave approximately $87 off the monthly repayments of a $600,000 loan.

“That might not sound like much in isolation, but across what would then be four cuts this year, the savings add up to almost $360 a month.”

That said, if your lender hasn’t been doing you right and you don’t want to sit around and wait for another rate cut, you could always negotiate a better rate by refinancing.

“The one rate cut you can bank on is the one you negotiate yourself, either by switching to a lower rate lender or haggling with your current bank,” says Tindall.

“If you’re an owner-occupier paying down your debt, know that the average variable rate is currently sitting at around 5.53 per cent. If you’re not under this mark, ideally well under, then it’s time to ask yourself why.”

Some banks and lenders even offer bonus refinance cashback to new home loan customers, with some offering up to $4,000 to make the switch at the time of writing. That said, if you’re looking to save, then it’s important to consider all the features of a home loan, like fees and interest rates, before being tempted by a special deal.