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Westpac the latest big bank to predict July RBA cut
Westpac’s economic team has today announced it now expects the RBA to cut the cash rate at the end of the central bank’s next meeting in 12 days’ time.
27 June 2025
Westpac’s economic team has today announced it now expects the RBA to cut the cash rate at the end of the central bank’s next meeting in 12 days’ time.
Westpac’s economic team has today announced it now expects the RBA to cut the cash rate at the end of the central bank’s next meeting in 12 days’ time.
CBA and Westpac previously believed the next cut would come at the end of the RBA’s August meeting, however, CBA updated its prediction to July on the back of yesterday’s inflation data, with Westpac changing today.
This means NAB, CBA and Westpac expect the next cut to come on 8 July. ANZ still expects it in August.
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| Current big four bank cash rate forecasts | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Bank | Next cut | Total no. cuts | Cash rate at end of cuts |
| CBA | 8 July | 2 | 3.35% |
| Westpac | 8 July | 4 | 2.85% |
| NAB | 8 July | 3 | 3.10% |
| ANZ | 12 August | 2 | 3.35% |
What would the impact of a July rate cut look like for borrowers?
An owner-occupier with a $600,000 debt today, and 25 years remaining on their loan, could see their monthly repayments drop by $90 on the back of a 0.25 percentage point RBA cut in July, assuming the banks pass it on in full to existing variable rate borrowers.
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| Potential impact of a July RBA cash rate cut | ||
|---|---|---|
| New minimum monthly repayments | Difference | |
| $500,000 | $3,086 | -$75 |
| $600,000 | $3,703 | -$90 |
| $750,000 | $4,628 | -$113 |
| $1,000,000 | $6,171 | -$150 |
Source: Canstar. Notes: based on an owner-occupier paying principal and interest starting in July 2025. Calculations assume a cut in July and that the banks pass it on in full to existing variable customers.
Westpac still expecting Australia’s cash rate to fall to 2.85%
All four big bank economic teams do not believe the RBA will stop at just one further cut.
CBA and ANZ expect a total of two more cuts, NAB, three, while Westpac still expects four cuts from this point on, with further reductions in November, February and May, however, the bank says they could come earlier.
On a $600,000 mortgage, two further cuts could see minimum repayments drop by almost $180, while if there are four cuts, these minimum repayments could drop by up to $350 (depending on the months of the cut).
Three of four big banks back consecutive cuts
Canstar’s data insights director, Sally Tindall says, “Next month’s RBA meeting will be live, and there’s a strong chance it will wrap up with a new cash rate of 3.60 per cent.”
“While three of the four big banks, CBA, NAB and now Westpac are now backing consecutive RBA cash rate cuts, as are the markets, this does not make it a certainty.
“The RBA will be weighing up a mixed bag of data, alongside a tense global environment.
“Variable borrowers should start putting pressure on their lender today to get their mortgage rate on to the lowest possible rung, ahead of any further cuts.
“At this point, there are over 35 lenders on the Canstar database offering at least one variable rate under 5.50 per cent for owner-occupiers paying principal and interest. Now is the time to use this competition to your advantage.”
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Cover image source: dee karen/Shutterstock.com
This article was reviewed by our Finance Editor Jessica Pridmore before it was updated, as part of our fact-checking process.
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