No surprises under the tree: RBA leaves rate unchanged

The RBA held the cash rate at 3.60% at its latest Monetary Policy Board meeting, with only one of the big four banks now predicting there’ll be any rate movement in 2026.

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The RBA held the cash rate at 3.60% at its latest Monetary Policy Board meeting, with only one of the big four banks now predicting there’ll be any rate movement in 2026.

They’ll be no early Christmas presents from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) this year, with October’s trimmed mean inflation figures of 3.3% (outside the RBA’s target band for inflation of 2%-3%) all but guaranteeing that the cash rate would remain steady.

To little surprise, the RBA’s Monetary Policy Board confirmed this afternoon that the cash rate would be held at 3.60%. While predictions for future rate movements are ever-changing, economists at the nation’s big four banks (ANZ, Commbank, NAB and Westpac) are predicting we won’t get rate relief until mid 2026, if at all.

When will interest rates go down?

A few months ago, economists at all of the nation’s big four banks had predicted a rate cut would come in November. This failed to materialise though, due to increasing levels of both CPI and trimmed mean inflation. A potential December rate cut suffered the same fate, as October’s figures (released at the end of November) had Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation at 3.8% and trimmed mean inflation at 3.3%.

Now only one of the big four banks forecasts a rate cut in 2026. Westpac remains unchanged and is still predicting two 25 basis point cuts, one in May and another in August 2026. ANZ, Commbank and NAB, on the other hand, aren’t predicting any rate movements at all for the entirety of next year.

While interest rates may not fall until the middle of 2026, it’s worth checking the home loan rates currently on offer to see if you can get a better deal. You can compare home loan rates with Canstar, including a loan product’s interest rate, comparison rate and Star Rating.

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This article was reviewed by our Finance Editor Jessica Pridmore before it was updated, as part of our fact-checking process.

Nick Whiting

Insurances Writer

Nick is Canstar's Insurances Writer, providing assistance to Canstar's Editorial Team in its mission to empower consumers to take control of their finances. He has written hundreds of articles for Canstar across all key finance topics. Coming from a screenwriting background, Nick completed a Bachelor of Film, Television and New Media Production from Queensland University of Technology. Nick has also completed RG 146 (Tier 1), making him compliant to provide general advice for general insurance products like car, home, travel and health insurance, as well as giving him knowledge of investment options such as shares, derivatives, futures, managed investments, currencies and commodities.
Nick’s role at Canstar allows him to combine his love of the written word with his interest in finance, having learned the art of share trading from his late grandfather. Nick strives to deliver clear and straightforward content that helps the everyday consumer navigating the world of finance. Nick is also working on a TV series in his spare time. You can connect with Nick on LinkedIn .