Borrowers on notice: Westpac and NAB now predict three back-to-back RBA hikes
12 Mar 2026
NAB and Westpac have today revised their cash rate forecasts, with both banks expecting the RBA to hike next Tuesday by 0.25, with another increase in May.
If this materialises, it would mean back-to-back hikes at three successive meetings, as the RBA is not scheduled to meet in April.
The other two majors, CBA and ANZ, still expect the RBA will hold until May, which is what NAB and Westpac were previously forecasting.
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| Current big four bank cash rate forecasts | ||
|---|---|---|
| Bank | Forecast | Cash rate – end 2026 |
| CBA | 1 x 0.25 in May | 4.10% |
| Westpac | 2 x 0.25 in March, May | 4.35% |
| NAB | 2 x 0.25 in March, May | 4.35% |
| ANZ | 1 x 0.25 in May | 4.10% |
Impact of a 0.25 cash rate hike in March
For someone with a $600,000 mortgage and 25 years remaining, a hike in March would increase a borrower’s monthly repayments by $91.
Across what would then be two hikes for the year in February and March, the total increase would be $181.
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| Impact of a 0.25 hike in March on monthly repayments | ||
|---|---|---|
| Debt owning | Hike in March | Cumulative increase (Feb + March) |
| $600,000 | +$91 | +$181 |
| $800,000 | +$121 | +$241 |
| $1 million | +$151 | +$301 |
Source: Canstar. Notes: based on an owner-occupier paying principal and interest with 25 years remaining in Feb 2026 at the RBA average existing customer variable rate. Calculations assume banks pass on the hikes the month after. Changes are to minimum repayments.If the RBA fires off a total of three hikes in 2026, as NAB and Westpac are now suggesting, the total increase to the monthly repayments on a $600,000 mortgage would be $272.
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| Impact of a 3 x 0.25 hikes in 2026 on monthly repayments | |
|---|---|
| Debt owning | Total increase (Feb + March + May) |
| $600,000 | +$272 |
| $800,000 | +$363 |
| $1 million | +$453 |
Source: Canstar. Notes: based on an owner-occupier paying principal and interest with 25 years remaining in Feb 2026 at the RBA average existing customer variable rate. Calculations assume banks pass on the hikes the month after.
Borrowers need to brace for further hikes
Canstar’s data insights director, Sally Tindall, says, “Borrowers hoping the worst of the rate hikes are behind them might need to brace themselves, with NAB and Westpac now tipping the RBA could ratchet up the pressure as soon as Tuesday.”
“Australia’s robust economy and jobs market, coupled with core inflation that is moving in the wrong direction, and likely to continue to do so, paint a strong case for a March hike.
“However, the split among the big four forecasts highlights just how uncertain the outlook currently is. The RBA is walking a tightrope between tackling persistent inflation and avoiding pushing too hard.
“A cash rate hike next week is not a done deal. The war in the Middle East has cast a huge cloud of uncertainty over the decision, because while the short-term impact of the conflict will push up prices, particularly fuel, the longer-term damage to the economy and jobs market is not yet clear.
“Even consumer confidence is difficult to interpret at this stage, as the unease among households increases as the days go by. With impact already being felt in areas like petrol, many people are becoming increasingly nervous.
“If the Westpac and NAB forecasts prove accurate, the RBA would deliver three back-to-back rate hikes across February, March and May – a scenario that would add further pressure to already stretched household budgets.
“A family with a $600,000 mortgage isn’t just looking at a few extra dollars each month. If the RBA ends up rolling out three successive hikes through to May, they’re looking at an extra $272 just as winter sets in.
“If you haven’t stress-tested your budget against a rate that’s at least a half a percentage point higher, tonight is the night to do it.
“For example, if you’re now sitting on a rate of 5.75 per cent, test it out at 6.25 per cent – even 6.50 per cent – to see if it stacks up against your budget.
“For borrowers, the key message is to prepare for the possibility of higher rates, even if it’s not yet a done deal. Now is the time to make sure your mortgage is competitive.”
This article was reviewed by our Consumer Editor Meagan Lawrence before it was updated, as part of our fact-checking process.
