All four big banks predict another RBA hike on Tuesday
12 Mar 2026
ANZ has this morning revised its cash rate forecast and now expects a 0.25 percentage point hike on Tuesday, followed by a rise in May taking the cash rate to 4.35%.
This means all four big bank economic teams now expect back-to-back hikes across three successive meetings, with the RBA not scheduled to meet in April.
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| Current big four bank cash rate forecasts | ||
|---|---|---|
| Bank | Forecast | Cash rate – end 2026 |
| CBA | 2 x 0.25 in March, May | 4.35% |
| Westpac | 2 x 0.25 in March, May | 4.35% |
| NAB | 2 x 0.25 in March, May | 4.35% |
| ANZ | 2 x 0.25 in March, May | 4.35% |
Impact of a 0.25 cash rate hike in March
For someone with a $600,000 mortgage and 25 years remaining at the start of the hikes, an increase in March would increase a borrower’s monthly repayments by $91.
Across what would then be two hikes for the year in February and March, the total increase would be $181, while three hikes would be a total increase of $272.
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| Impact of three 0.25 rate hikes on monthly repayments | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt owning | Feb | March | May | Total |
| $600,000 | +$90 | +$91 | +$91 | +$272 |
| $800,000 | +$120 | +$121 | +$122 | +$363 |
| $1 million | +$150 | +$151 | +152 | +$453 |
Source: Canstar. Based on an owner-occupier paying principal & interest with 25 yrs remaining in Feb 2026 on the RBA av. variable rate. Calculations assume banks pass on the hikes the month after. Changes are to minimum repayments.
Fixed rates continue to rise ahead of RBA meeting
Canstar shows in the past two weeks, 20 lenders have hiked a total of 369 fixed rates, ahead of Tuesday’s RBA Board meeting, a strong indication banks are factoring in an RBA hike next week.
Similarly, term deposit rates – the other canary in the coal mine – has also seen significant movement. Canstar rate tracking shows 41 banks have hiked a total of 184 term deposit rates in the last two weeks.
Canstar’’s data insights director, Sally Tindall, says, “ANZ has joined CBA, NAB and Westpac in tipping another rate hike on Tuesday, following comments from the RBA’s Deputy Governor, Andrew Hauser, which reiterated the bank’s determination to rein in ‘toxic’ inflation.”
“He did, however, acknowledge, more than once, that it would be a line-ball call, saying the Board has its work cut out for it next week.
“From a rate tracking perspective, the banks appear to be factoring in a hike. Analysis of the Canstar database shows 20 lenders have increased close to 400 fixed rates in the past fortnight, while 41 banks have hiked 184 term deposit rates. That’s two very loud canaries in the coal mine right there.
“If a rate hike materialises in March, it would mark the second RBA increase in as many meetings and add another $91 a month to repayments on a typical $600,000 mortgage.
“Unfortunately, the banks aren’t predicting the rate hikes will stop there. All four big banks expect we’ll see another hike in May, which would make it three hikes in as many meetings.
“For a borrower lugging around a $1 million debt, this could translate into an increase to their minimum repayments of almost half a thousand dollars, at a time when they’ll likely be paying more for petrol and other everyday essentials.
“If you have a mortgage, start preparing for higher rates. There are still over 40 lenders offering at least one variable rate under 5.50 per cent.
“Switch, haggle, do whatever it takes to get yourself on a lower starting rate in case the one rise we saw last month turns into a rate hike frenzy.”
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| Lowest variable home loan rates on Canstar for refinancers | ||
|---|---|---|
| Provider | Advertised rate from | Equity required for refinancers |
| LCU | 5.19% | 20% |
| Pacific Mortgage Group | 5.24% | 40% |
| Homestar Finance | 5.39% | 30% |
| RACQ | 5.39% | 40% |
| Police Credit Union | 5.39% | 20% |
| Mortgage House | 5.39% | 40% |
| MOVE Bank | 5.39% | 20% |
| Australian Mutual Bank | 5.39% | 40% |
| Transport Mutual Credit Union | 5.39% | 20% |
| Freedom Lend | 5.39% | 40% |
Source: Canstar. Based on owner-occupier variable loans, excluding first home buyer only, green only and other special condition loans. Lowest rates selected based on rate and then comparison rate. One product per provider is listed. Note equity required takes into account the required 20% deposit to avoid lenders mortgage insurance.
This article was reviewed by our Consumer Editor Meagan Lawrence before it was updated, as part of our fact-checking process.
