ANZ the third big bank to rule out cash rate cuts this cycle
02 Dec 2025
ANZ has today updated its cash rate forecast, ruling out any further RBA rate cuts in this cycle. Before today, it predicted one further cut in February 2026.
As a result, three of the big bank economic teams, CBA, NAB and ANZ, now expect the cash rate will remain on hold in 2026.
Westpac remains the outlier, expecting two further cuts in May and August 2026.
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| Current big four bank cash rate forecasts | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Bank | Next move | Total cuts to come in cycle | Cash rate at end of cuts |
| CBA | – | 0 | 3.60% |
| Westpac | 0.25%-pt cut May 26 | 2 | 3.10% |
| NAB | – | 0 | 3.60% |
| ANZ | – | 0 | 3.60% |
With inflation moving in the wrong direction and unemployment falling back to 4.3%, there is no case for a further rate cut in the near term.
The RBA will almost certainly keep rates on hold when it meets next week on 8 and 9 December, with some economists now signaling the next move from the RBA could be up, rather than down.
Are borrowers prepared for rates to remain on hold?
Canstar’s Consumer Pulse Report, released this week, found that 66% of borrowers are prepared for rates to remain on hold in 2026, with 34% either not prepared or not sure.
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| Are you financially prepared for rates to remain at the current level in 2026? | |
|---|---|
| Yes, I am prepared | 66% |
| No, I am not prepared | 23% |
| I don’t know | 11% |
| Source: Canstar Consumer Pulse Report 2025. | |
Source: Canstar Consumer Pulse Report 2025.
Rate cuts on offer to those willing to act
Borrowers seeking rate relief should be on the lookout for a competitive rate.
Rate tracking from Canstar shows, while some banks are now hiking fixed rates, the lowest fixed rate remains steady at 4.64%, while the lowest variable rate is 4.99%.
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| Lowest home loan rates on Canstar.com.au | ||
|---|---|---|
| Rate type | Lender | Lowest rate from |
| Variable | Geelong Bank
Unity Bank, G&C Mutual, Horizon Bank (first home buyer only) |
4.99% |
| 1-year | Pacific Mortgage Group | 4.84% |
| 2-year | Australian Mutual (first home buyer only) | 4.64% |
| 3-year | Australian Mutual | 4.74% |
Source: Canstar. Rates are for owner occupiers paying principal and interest. Min deposit requirements apply. Excludes green loans and introductory rate loans.
Term deposit rates continue to rise on the back of changing forecasts
Term deposit rates, often a window into the predicted future of the cash rate, have continued to rise on the back of growing consensus we could already be at the bottom of the cycle.
Data tracking shows 34 banks increased at least one term deposit rate in the month of November, up from just six in July of this year.
Canstar data insights director, Sally Tindall, said, “ANZ has joined a growing cohort of economists who now believe we’ve hit the bottom of the cash rate cycle.”
“While the RBA is unlikely to start hiking rates without plenty of notice, if inflation continues to move in the wrong direction, the next move from the central bank could be up rather than down.
“Certainly, if term deposit rates are the canary in the coal mine, then further cash rate cuts are unlikely.
“Rate tracking shows 34 banks have hiked at least one term deposit in the month of November, up from just six in July.
“Variable borrowers staring down the barrel of no more cash rate cuts should know they can still take matters into their own hands, whether that’s refinancing to a more competitive lender or haggling with their existing bank.
“For those savers looking to lock in a term deposit rate, make sure you shop around to find a competitive deal but also know rates could potentially rise even higher in the months ahead, although there’s certainly no guarantee of this.
“Laddering can be one way to keep your options open, locking in smaller pots of money at different times. While the strategy isn’t for everyone, it can potentially provide savers with greater flexibility and the ability to capitalise on more competitive rates down the track, should they materialise.
“At the end of the day, if you’re not sure what approach to take, particularly when the future of the cash rate is so highly uncertain, seek out some financial advice and do your research. This will help you make an informed decision that’s a good fit for your own financial situation.”
This article was reviewed by our Consumer Editor Meagan Lawrence before it was updated, as part of our fact-checking process.
