Tale of two property markets: Brisbane and Perth to defy 2026 rate hikes as Australia’s largest cities stall

Median house prices in Brisbane and Perth are tipped to climb by more than $50,000 by the end of the year, according to Canstar analysis of Cotality house prices and ANZ forecasts.

Perth is predicted to deliver the strongest gains through to the end of the year, according to ANZ’s economic report, released last week, with dwelling prices forecast to jump 12.3%. Applied to houses, Canstar analysis shows Perth’s current median price would rise by $51,569 to $1.11 million.

ANZ sees Brisbane property prices climbing by 9.7% this year. If this eventuates, it could see the median house price rise by $54,919 to $1.26 million.

House prices in Australia’s two largest capital cities, Sydney and Melbourne, are set for a very different outcome. Both have already posted drops this year and are set to continue to slide modestly through to the end of 2026.

Source: Canstar.com.au. ANZ property price forecasts, Cotality Home Value Index, 31 December 2025 and 31 March 2026. Assumes house prices change in line with dwelling forecasts.  

Note: These calculations are estimates based on forecasts that are subject to change and may prove inaccurate. Forecasts should not be relied upon as the sole basis for making financial decisions. Individuals should consider their own circumstances and seek independent financial advice.

Two cash rate hikes this year have dealt a $25k drop to borrowing power

Rising rates have put a near-immediate handbrake on the maximum amount people can borrow from the bank, however, a lack of stock will keep prices charging north, according to ANZ economists. 

Canstar analysis shows that a single person earning the average full-time wage, as recorded by the ABS, could potentially borrow $24,800 less from the bank as a result of the February and March RBA hikes. 

However, if there are three more 0.25 cash rate hikes this year, as forecast by Westpac, this person’s buying budget could shrink by a total of $58,700 this year. 

Source: Canstar. Based on an owner-occupier taking out a 30-year loan at avg RBA rate in Feb 26. Assumes minimal expenses, no debts, no dependents, average wage based on ABS data.

Rate hikes have already pushed house prices to their limit

Canstar data insights director, Sally Tindall, says, “It’s a tale of two property markets across Australia in a tug-of-war between how much the bank will lend, versus how desperately people need houses.”

“The rate hikes have pushed Sydney house prices to their limit, at least for now, which, at a median price of $1.6 million is far from surprising. 

“Already, in Sydney, Cotality data has recorded a 0.6 per cent drop from the start of the year for houses.

“The recent nosedive in consumer confidence on the back of the war in the Middle East and the prediction of up to three more rate hikes still to come will continue to push some buyers to the sidelines, cooling demand in many previously hot property markets.

“For home buyers still in the hunt, news of property price drops will be welcome, but they’re nowhere close to a solve. Already, people’s home buying budgets have dropped by far more than the fall in the median house price in cities such as Sydney and Melbourne.

“Brisbane and Perth property prices are managing to defy the cash rate hikes and, if ANZ’s forecasts are realised, their median house prices could both rise by more $50,000 from now through to the end of the year.

“Both of these markets are hurtling towards prices that are fast becoming unaffordable for people looking for four walls and a patch of grass.

“The danger is, people will borrow to the limit, banking on prices continuing to climb. If circumstances change – whether that’s interest rates, job security or the economy – it could leave some households overexposed.”

Source: ANZ housing price growth forecast update, released 9 April 2026.