When will interest rates go down in 2026?

With two rate hikes on the books already in 2026, the question now becomes whether we will see more this year.

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With two rate hikes on the books already in 2026, the question now becomes whether we will see more this year.

At its March 2026 board meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.10%, and all eyes are now on the central bank to see if and how soon it will raise rates again this year.

The RBA cut rates three times in 2025, offering a measure of relief to variable-rate home loan borrowers, but with inflation creeping back up again and uncertainty as to the impact of the conflict in the Middle East, another hike could be looming.

The major banks have shifted their predictions significantly since the start of the year – at one point, it was thought we might only see one rate rise in 2026, but now we’ve already seen two. So what does this mean for the rest of the year?

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When do the big four banks think rates will go down?

The RBA’s board will announce its next cash rate call for 2026 on Tuesday May 5, but in the meantime, here’s what the big four banks are forecasting.

ANZ: One more cash rate hike in 2026

Economists at ANZ predict that the RBA will hike rates by 25 basis points in May, bringing the cash rate to 4.35%.

Commonwealth Bank: One more cash rate hike in 2026

Economists at CommBank predict that the RBA will hike rates by 25 basis points in May, bringing the cash rate to 4.35%.

NAB: One more cash rate hike in 2026

Economists at NAB predict that the RBA will hike rates by 25 basis points in May, bringing the cash rate to 4.35%.

Westpac: One more cash rate hike in 2026

Economists at NAB predict that the RBA will hike rates by 25 basis points in May, bringing the cash rate to 4.35%.

When does the RBA board meet next?

The board of the RBA has changed its meeting schedule in 2024. Where it used to meet on the first Tuesday of each month, excluding January, it now meets eight times a year, for two days at a time. The rationale behind this altered schedule is to give the board more time to consider its decisions. The meeting dates for the RBA board in 2026 are as follows:

2–3 February
16-17 March
4–5 May
15–16 June
10–11 August
28–29 September
2–3 November
7–8 December

The RBA’s next cash rate announcement is due on Tuesday May 5.

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This article was reviewed by our Editor-in-Chief Nina Rinella before it was updated, as part of our fact-checking process.

Alasdair Duncan

Deputy Finance Editor

Alasdair Duncan is Canstar's Deputy Finance Editor, specialising in home loans, property and lifestyle topics. He has written more than 500 articles for Canstar and his work is widely referenced by other publishers and media outlets, including Yahoo Finance, The New Daily, The Motley Fool and Sky News. He has featured as a guest author for property website homely.com.au.

In his more than 15 years working in the media, Alasdair has written for a broad range of publications. Before joining Canstar, he was a News Editor at Pedestrian.TV, part of Australia’s leading youth media group. His work has also appeared on ABC News, Junkee, Rolling Stone, Kotaku, the Sydney Star Observer and The Brag. He has a Bachelor of Laws (Honours) and a Bachelor of Arts with a major in Journalism from the University of Queensland.

When he is not writing about finance for Canstar, Alasdair can probably be found at the beach with his two dogs or listening to podcasts about pop music. You can follow Alasdair on LinkedIn.