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ANZ joins the July RBA rate cut camp
02 July 2025
ANZ’s economics team has brought forward its RBA rate cut forecast, now tipping the next move will come on Tuesday.
The bank had previously expected the RBA to cut in August, with a second move likely in February 2026. However, it now expects cuts in both July and August, bringing the cash rate down to 3.35%.
ANZ cited sluggish retail spending, stalled consumer confidence and growing uncertainty around US trade policy as key reasons for the shift.
This means all four big banks now expect the next cash rate cut to come on 8 July.
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| Current big four bank cash rate forecasts | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Bank | Next cut | Total no. cuts | Cash rate at end of cuts |
| CBA | 8 July | 2 | 3.35% |
| Westpac | 8 July | 4 | 2.85% |
| NAB | 8 July | 3 | 3.10% |
| ANZ | 8 July | 2 | 3.35% |
What would the impact of a July rate cut look like for borrowers?
An owner-occupier with a $600,000 debt today, and 25 years remaining on their loan, could see their monthly repayments drop by $90 on the back of a 0.25 percentage point RBA cut on Tuesday, assuming the banks pass it on in full to existing variable rate borrowers.
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| Potential impact of a July RBA cash rate cut | ||
|---|---|---|
| New minimum monthly repayments | Difference | |
| $500,000 | $3,086 | -$75 |
| $600,000 | $3,703 | -$90 |
| $750,000 | $4,628 | -$113 |
| $1,000,000 | $6,171 | -$150 |
Source: Canstar. Notes: based on an owner-occupier paying principal and interest starting in July 2025. Calculations assume a cut in July and that the banks pass it on in full to existing variable customers the month after.
Tides are turning on a July rate cut
Canstar’s data insights director, Sally Tindall says, “ANZ has finally jumped on the July rate cut bandwagon, joining the rest of the big four in tipping the RBA to move on Tuesday. That’s a powerful chorus and one borrowers will be hoping hits the right note.”
“The tide has clearly turned. Just weeks ago, many economists were eyeing August or later for the next move.
“Retail sales are soft, inflation is well within the target band and the global outlook is highly uncertain. It’s no wonder ANZ has brought forward its forecast.
“ANZ’s cuts to fixed rates today, which were up to 0.35 percentage points, certainly reflect this updated forecast.
“That said, a cut on Tuesday is not a foregone conclusion. The RBA’s preferred measure of inflation is the quarterly CPI results, which aren’t due out until the end of July and Australia’s unemployment rate isn’t putting heat on the RBA. The Board may choose to hold off for another month to give the May cut more time to filter through our economy.
“If the RBA cuts next week and your bank passes it on in full, you could be looking at $90 a month back in your pocket on a $600,000 mortgage. That’s money better spent on groceries than interest.
“Don’t just cross your fingers for a cut, use this time to check your rate. Whether or not the RBA moves, a quick call to your bank could deliver near-instant savings.”
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Cover image source: Daenin/Shutterstock.com
This article was reviewed by our Finance Editor Jessica Pridmore before it was updated, as part of our fact-checking process.
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