Just how expensive could petrol get as Ukraine crisis continues?

Aussies can expect to pay more at the bowser as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate. So just how expensive could petrol prices get?

Global oil prices jumped on Thursday, with Brent crude oil rising above US$100 a barrel for the first time since 2014. It follows fears that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may lead to disruptions to global energy supply.

Russia is the world’s third-largest producer and second-largest exporter of oil. Since the start of the year, oil prices have increased more than $20 a barrel amidst growing tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

Australian petrol prices are already sitting at a high, with the national average petrol price rising 2.2 cents to 179.1 cents per litre last week, according to the Australian Institute of Petroleum.

The average Australian household uses 35 litres of fuel per week, based on the Australian Bureau of Statistics household expenditure survey. That means the average household is now spending over $250 a month on fuel, based on last week’s numbers.

How high will fuel prices go?

Fuel prices may soon soar to over $2 a litre, according to Vlado Vivoda, a Senior Lecturer in Strategic Studies at Deakin University.

“It typically takes more than a week for changes in international prices to flow through to retail prices in Australian cities, and longer in regional areas,” he wrote.

“But based on what is happening internationally we can expect petrol prices in Australia to soon reach an average of $2.10 a litre.”

That’s based on a prediction from US Bank J.P. Morgan, who forecast that oil would reach US$125 per barrel.

If fuel prices were to reach $2.10 a litre, it means the average household would spend more than $290 a month on fuel, an increase of over $40 a month compared to last week’s numbers.

How long will high fuel prices last?

On Thursday, Scott Morrison said the Russia-Ukraine crisis would likely only have a “short-term impact” on Australian fuel prices and he dismissed suggestions to freeze the fuel excise tax.

“The advice we’re getting, particularly out of the International Energy Agency, is that this impact is likely to be short-term, it’s likely to be temporary,” he told ABC Radio.

In the meantime, Aussies could consider trying other methods to save on fuel costs. One easy way to save is by downloading a fuel app like Fuel Map, MotorMouth or Petrol Spy. This should help you find up-to-date fuel prices, so you can see who’s got the cheapest price in your area.